Papers - Risk Management

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Risk Management Topics:

 - Risk assessment & management

 - Confidence levels




Risk assessment & management

Baked In Optimism – Why so many projects fail. 2023 Webinar, Patrick Weaver.

This webinar looks at two processes that are ‘baked into’ standard project management estimating and control to show how recommended good practices are still optimistically biased.
- When preparing an estimate good practice recommends using Monte Carlo to determine an appropriate contingency and the level of risk to accept. However, the typical range distributions used are biased – they ignore the ‘long tail’.
- When reporting progress, the estimating bias should be identified and rectified to offer a realistic projection of a project outcome. Standard cost and schedule processes typically fail to adequately deal with this challenge meaning the final time and cost overruns are not predicted until late in the project.

This webinar highlights at least some of the causes for these problems. Solving the cultural and management issues is for another time. 

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Who needs luck? How innovators thrive on risk and opportunity, leading the way to success. 2022, Val Jonas. 

For many years, opportunity was regard as the way to cancel out risk - the zero-sum game, that meant there was no need to fund risk mitigation. But thinking has matured to a degree since then. And pundits have long since stopped describing risk and opportunity as simply the flip side of the same coin. Sadly, however, little progress has been made on new, alternative thinking on how to systematically exploit opportunity. Which means that we are missing a trick, ignoring a key tool that could help us achieve our goals: innovation. This presentation takes a practical look at some of the key strategies and tactics you can employ to capture opportunities and tip the odds in your favour. Leading the way to success.

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Strategies to detect, prevent, and correct causes of project stress and failure.  2021, Glen Alleman. 

Cost and schedule growth and technical shortfalls for Defence and Government programs are created when there are unrealistic: technical performance expectations, cost and schedule estimates, risk assessments, and/or unanticipated technical issues. All rooted in poorly performed and ineffective risk assessment, or management.

This presentation shows how to correct or prevent these conditions by applying the principles of Systems Engineering and Program Management to increase the probability of Program success.

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Modeling risk interdependencies to support decision making in project risk management: analytical and simulation-based methods.  2021, Li Guan. 

This paper establishes three analytical methods-based project risk assessment models, namely, a Fuzzy Bayesian Belief Network-based risk assessment model, an Interpretive Structural Modeling-MICMAC analysis-based risk assessment model, and a Social Network Analysis-based risk assessment model. In addition, one simulation-based project risk assessment model, i.e., the Monte Carlo Simulation-based risk interdependency network model, is developed to capture the stochastic behavior of project risk occurrence.  Download the presentation.


The art of Risk Intelligence and 20:20 Decision Making. 2020 Webinar, Val Jonas.
In this webinar, we explore how to nurture risk intelligence in our organisations, from the top down, from the middle out, from the bottom up. By establishing risk vision, risk connectedness and risk engagement, we can turn risk from an unwanted foe to a welcome friend - a powerful force for good. Risk intelligent organisations navigate the future purposely, through sound decision-making that drives innovation, efficiency, effectiveness and successful outcomes.
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2020 Webinar: A Risk Management Journey. Gavin Halling.

A risk management journey distils Gavin's 25 years' experience into three stops: process, toolsets and uncertain costs. It describes how each stop evolved from the experience of solving a client's challenge coupled with a focus on value (particularly efficiency and effectiveness). The journey includes some handouts that will enable you to reflect on your experience. It ends by asking you to consider where you are in your risk management journey and what you see as your desired destination.

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Deriving Certainty from Uncertainty - Value from Project Risk and Contingency Management, 2019, Gavin Halling. 

The International Risk Management Standard ISO 31000 describes itself as a guide. Its application varies widely across organisations. This is to be expected when the context is substantially different (eg a compliance risk process will be different to one for projects). There is also the recent (version 2 Feb 2019) IEAus Risk Engineering Society "Contingency Guidelines". Both these documents tell you what is expected but do not give too much practical insight into HOW to undertake project risk and contingency management.
Project risk has two components that separate it from other risk processes:

1. A rapidly changing risk profile which requires a particularly dynamic process and
2. Consumption of precious capital

This presentation describes a well-honed process that will enable you to effectively manage risk.
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Complex Projects   -  how to reduce the schedule RISK and ensure the desired returns,  2016, Robert Bolton.

Complex projects are now the new normal.  They are big ($500 million plus and over $6 trillion globally).  They have many dependencies, relationships and stakeholders creating a spider web of linkages.  They are generally late.  Often very late. And well over budget. This presentation shows how the CPM & CCPM methods compare.  Discuss the perils of multi-tasking plus explore the risk mitigations tools such as the fever chart.  It also discusses a number of case studies of complex projects in the infrastructure, building and defence industries. 
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Confidence levels

The FICSM Team: The whole is greater than the sum of its parts. 2023 Keynote, Ryan Bettinger. 

A Fully Integrated Cost Schedule Model (FICSM) helps merge the stovepipes of cost, schedule, and risk into a holistic model and provide risk-informed decision-making information to the Program/project management and stakeholders. FISCM reaches across disciplines to obtain data from cost analysts, schedulers, and risk managers and is useful for defending budgetary and scheduling decisions with evidence, prioritizing risks and other threats based on their overall impact to the program and not simply their anticipated local impact, developing more precise risk mitigation plans, among many other uses. Developing a FICSM model takes time and effort. Identifying and establishing the appropriate team members and points of contact is instrumental for success. This presentation will highlight some of the speaker's experience in identifying and establishing the various roles required to construct a FICSM model and how these led to the successful execution of the Programs/projects.

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Hope is Not a Method: Using Uncertainty Analysis to Better Predict the Costs of Your Program. 2022 Keynote, Melissa Cyrulik.

According to the US Government Accountability Office, in 2008 nearly 70% of the US Defense 96 biggest weapons programs were over budget. Congress instituted the Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009 to improve the organization and procedures of the DoD acquisition process. During this period, the cost community was primarily producing estimates based on most likely inputs, lacking incorporation of the full range of possible outcomes for the inputs. Studies were underway experimenting with incorporating monte carl simulation techniques into our cost estimating processes and WSARA provided the push that made it a requirement. The Joint Agency Cost Schedule Risk Uncertainty Handbook (JA CSRUH) describes the best practice techniques to model cost estimating uncertainty in order to calculate and report cost risk. This session shares thoughts and insights on the JA CSRUH and how it spurred major improvements in DoD's acquisitions.

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Masterclass: Joint Agency Cost Schedule Risk Uncertainty Handbook (JA CSRUH)


Joint Confidence Levels – combining project control artefacts to inform decision making. 2021, Andrew Butt.

You have a cost model, a project schedule and a great risk register, boxes ticked for sure, planning done, what's next? In this presentation I will guide you through my experiences of what happens when you combine these three basic project control artefacts using the Fully Integrated Cost Schedule Method. We will take a look at how it is done, consider some of the questions it might help you answer, and show you how it can be used to inform discussions around the probability of a project finishing both on time and within budget
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Can We Improve Project Risk Management?  2016, Yiding Hu.

Risk management of a Defence acquisition project requires the identification and mitigation of risks from initial project planning to the end of service life.  When dealing with long-term system or capability development, project risk management is a dynamic process.  This leads to a need for the effective management approaches outlined in this presentation.   
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2020 Webinar: Increasing the Probability of Program Success, Glen Aleman. 

This presentation provides a rare opportunity to learn from the latest United States research on the primary causes and contributors to project stress and failure and the latest strategies and tools and techniques which can be implemented to prevent and correct these issues, significantly improving the probability of successful project delivery outcomes.

View the Webinar.

Mosaic-Logo-Small.jpg For more Risk resources see: