20th Anniversary International Webinar Program:
March 2023 was 20 years after the publication of the seminal paper Schedule is Different, in The Measurable News. This was the paper that introduced the concept of Earned Schedule to the world.
Earned Schedule (ES) is a breakthrough analytical technique that resolved the inability of Earned Value Management (EVM) to predict the project completion date. It is derived from, and is an extension to, EVM that uses normal EVM data. But, in contrast to the cost-based indicators from EVM, the ES schedule performance indicators are time-based, and provide a status and predictive ability for schedule outcomes, analogous to the facility for cost status and cost predictions when using traditional EVM. For more on how ES works and to download the free tools, visit the ES Home Page.
This 20th Anniversary Webinar, held on 8th March 2023, showcased the value of ES as an extension to EVM, the enhancement and developments of the last 20 years, and considered the way forward. Our presenters listed in the program below are Earned Schedule experts, drawn from around the world, representing a diverse range of industries.
The PGCS organizing committee thanks the sponsors and supporters who have helped make this celebration of Earned Schedule a great success. We encourage everyone to click through to their websites:
Earned Schedule Webinar Program and recorded sessions:
- Earned Schedule, 20 years of innovation, past - present and future - Walt Lipke
- Validating Earned Schedule, the research and studies - Kym Henderson
- Interview with Keith Heitzman (NASA Contractor) - Keith Heitzman & Patrick Weaver
- Act Fast, Think Fast: Agile Schedule Performance - Robert Van de Velde
- Research on a categoriser to enhance expected project duration forecasting performance
using ES - Paulo André de Andrade - A 20-year academic research journey summarized in one presentation - Mario Vanhoucke
- Telling the time in the UK - Michael Higgins
- Do You Trust Your IMS? (Earned Schedule vs. Traditional IECDs in a forecasting accuracy showdown) -
Yancy Qualls
Read the review of this event by Robert Van De Velde published in the May 2023 PM World Journal:
PGCS Webinar: Earned Schedule at 20 Years--A Recap
Earned Schedule Master Class
Click through to take the free Earned Schedule Master Class developed by Walt Lipke.
1. Earned Schedule, 20 years of innovation, past – present and future
Walt Lipke
Abstract:
Earned Schedule is a significant enhancement to Earned Value Management (EVM). From its beginnings, practitioners of EVM have desired a methodology for controlling both cost and schedule performance. Earned Schedule enables that integration, which likely explains its extraordinary propagation and uptake around the world.
ES is a simple idea; though, over time it has evolved to complex methods for analyzing schedule performance. In his presentation, Walt will discuss the origin of Earned Schedule, its dependence upon EVM, and its extensive schedule analysis capabilities. He will wrap up the session with a few words concerning the future foreseen for ES.
Brief Bio:
Walt Lipke is the award winning creator of Earned Schedule (ES). He retired from federal service with over 35 years of experience in the development, maintenance, and management of software for automated testing of avionics. He is a graduate of the USA DoD course for Program Managers, a professional engineer with a master’s degree in physics, and is a member of the physics honor society, Sigma Pi Sigma (SPS).
Mr. Lipke has published over ninety articles on the method, as well as two books, Earned Schedule and Earned Schedule Plus. Additionally, he has presented research on ES and its schedule performance analysis methods at conferences in the United States and internationally
2. Validating Earned Schedule, the research and studies
Kym Henderson
Abstract:
Introducing a new concept into the realm of project controls is challenging. This presentation will outline the studies and research undertaken to validate the reliability of Earned Schedule's predictions and some of the challenges and controversies that had to be overcome. The conclusion to be drawn from this extensive body of work is that Earned Schedule's time predictions are similar in accuracy to Earned Value's cost predictions making ES a valuable addition to the project controls toolset.
Brief Bio:
Kym Henderson has over twenty years of experience including Project and Program Management, Program Management Office, Software Quality Assurance Management and Project Planning and Control across multiple industry sectors including Government, Commercial IT, Telecommunications, Defence, Manufacturing, Utilities and some Banking and Financial Services.
He was a core team member for the PMI Earned Value Management (EVM) Global Practice Standard 2nd edition project published in October 2011 and ISO 21508:2018 Earned value management in project and programme management published in 2018. He is currently leading the development of ISO 21512 Earned Value Management (EVM) in Project and Programme Management — Implementation Guide due for publication in 2023. He is a leading Earned Schedule researcher and subject matter expert. Kym has extensive experience utilising EVM and associated techniques on IT projects of various sizes and complexity in the commercial and defence industry sectors.
3. Interview with Keith Heitzman (NASA Contractor)
Keith Heitzman interviewed by Patrick Weaver
Abstract:
Keith will share an Overview of the NASA Artemis I mission and the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket. Earned Schedule played a roll in helping to predict when the SLS rocket would be ready for delivery for pre-launch processing at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.
Brief Bio:
Keith Heitzman has 30+ years’ experience in Engineering and Project/Program Management across several industries. His career started on large engineer/construction programs with the DOE, US Army Corp of Engineers, and City Governments; and evolved into programs associated with NASA and private aerospace. Much of his expertise is in Program Planning and Controls for large programs.
Keith enjoys taking breaks to travel, hike and make sawdust (woodwork). He is now the Program Manager of the NASA Consolidated Program Support Services Program Planning and Control contract (CPSS PP&C). This contract supplies about 230 PP&C personnel supporting NASA projects and programs.
4. Act Fast, Think Fast: Agile Schedule Performance
Robert Van de Velde (Canada)
Abstract:
Agile practitioners face a dilemma: they want to act fast but must think slow. Without reasoned decisions on what to do and when to do it, systematic errors in judgment are inevitable. Earned Schedule offers a way out of the dilemma. It leverages data already available on most Agile projects to provide insights into schedules and how they perform. Unlike familiar Burn Charts, Earned Schedule metrics directly measure time performance and signal when action is needed. In short, Earned Schedule gives Agile projects a way to act and think fast to improve schedule performance.
Brief Bio:
Robert Van De Velde, Ph.D. is a project-management practitioner. In the past 35 years, he has served as PM or PMO-lead on over two dozen projects and programs. They have ranged in size from six to nine figures and have been completed in domains from business to government.
Committed to improving his practice, Rob has continued to study project management. In 2007, he discovered Earned Schedule, and in 2014, he became an Agile Scrum Master. As Rob’s practice focuses on time-critical projects, he’s had plenty of opportunity to use both techniques.
During his studies, Rob worked out the math for combining Earned Schedule and Agile. He adapted the techniques to one another and iteratively implemented and upgraded the approach. Rob shares his knowledge and experience through a blog (earnedscheduleexchange.com), vlog (earnedscheduleacademy.com), professional journals, and, increasingly, through posts on LinkedIn groups, hashtags, and his company site.
To contact him:
Email: Robert.VanDeVelde@projectflightdeck.com.
For a full bio, see: https://www.linkedin.com/in/robvandevelde.
While you’re there, please follow us at: linkedin.com/company/projectflightdeck.
5. Research on a categoriser to enhance expected project
duration forecasting performance using ES
Paulo André de Andrade (Brazil)
Abstract:
The presentation will provide the attendants with a summary of the work done in bringing Earned Schedule to the Brazilian project management community and an overview of the PMB Limits Categoriser (PLC) concepts and results.
Project managers need to understand which characteristics a project should have to enable a good performance on its duration forecast. Currently, the most known method is the topological analysis of its network, commonly called serial/parallel indicator. However, the newer project regularity indicator recently outperformed the serial/parallel indicator in predicting the accuracy of project duration forecasts. The latest development in this field is the PLC, a novel project regularity indicator created in 2022, provides better results than existing categorisers.
Brief Bio:
Paulo works, since 1995, as a consultant in project management. He graduated in Electronic Engineering from Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica (ITA-1968), holds an MBA in Project Management from Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV-2008) and got his PMP certification, in 2009, by the PMI. Paulo worked at IBM Brazil (1971/95) as Engineer and as manager of Engineering. hardware development, business development and software products. During 1972 to 1975, he went to Germany and the USA to work on technology transfer projects. IBM hired him from 1997 to 2004 as manager of the modernisation of Banco do Brasil branch offices software environment. From 2010 onwards, Paulo explored and disseminated the Earned Schedule technique in Brazil. Walt Lipke commissioned him in 2013 and 2020 to translate and market his books "Earned Schedule" and "Earned Schedule Plus". In 2016, Prof. Mario Vanhoucke invited Paulo to research project schedule control and forecasting techniques. Paulo coordinated for the Brazilian Association for Technical Standards (an ISO member) the development of its Project Performance Management Guidance. He published papers and created the PLC, a novel ES-based project categoriser to improve the expected accuracy of project duration forecast.
E-mail: pandre@techisa.net
6. A 20-year academic research journey summarized in one presentation
Mario Vanhoucke PhD
Abstract:
Project management with earned value and schedule control has long remained outside the field of academic research, but that all changed with the introduction of the earned schedule concept in 2003. What was initially a collaboration between two friends in Belgium, quickly grew into an intense journey with people all over the world (including Walt Lipke). In 2011, I was awarded a 1.3 million euro research grant to explore the concepts and extend them to more advanced methodologies, including statistical and analytical project control using EVM/ES. The Operations Research & Scheduling group in Belgium now has 20 PhD students working on academic research studies in this exciting field. The presentation will provide a full summary, without too many technical details, of the journey that began 20 years ago with an article in the Measurable News, and has since culminated in more than 5 doctorates, an empirical database of 180 projects and +20 peer-reviewed articles in flagship journals on this exciting field of research.
Brief Bio:
Mario Vanhoucke is a Full Professor at Ghent University (Belgium) and Vlerick Business School (Belgium), where he joined more than twenty years ago (2001).He is also a guest professor at the UCL School of Management of University College London (UK). Dr Vanhoucke earned his PhD in Management Science (Project Management: Planning and Scheduling) from the University of Leuven in 2001 and is managing partner at the company OR-AS (www.or-as.be). He teaches "Project Management", "Applied Operations Research", and "Decision Making for Business". His research interests include project management and control systems, including scheduling algorithms for resource-constrained project scheduling problems, schedule risk analyses and project control methods using earned value management. He has expertise in simulation-based business modeling and makes use of artificial and empirical projects in his research studies. He has +100 publications in multiple outlets and is author of five project management books (www.or-as.be/books). He has been awarded by PMI Belgium, IPMA (twice) and other organizations for his research on project scheduling and control.
7. Telling the time in the UK
Michael Higgins (UK)
Abstract:
From introducing the technique into the wider Project Management community via the Association of Project Management to helping software providers develop Earned Schedule capabilities for key clients.
The presentation provides an insight into the adoption of Earned Schedule over the last 20 years in the UK.
Brief Bio:
Mick Higgins is the Director of Xacom Project Controls, a consultancy providing Project Control services across companies, organisations and markets. He specialises in Earned Value Management, Risk Management, Scheduling and Project Reviews to businesses of all sizes around the world, ultimately improving their bottom line by crafting creative solutions to their Project Control problems. Mick started his career as an apprentice at BAE Systems in 1996 and has since worked for BMT Hi-Q Sigma, Thales and Airbus Helicopters. In 2011 Mick decided to go it alone and set up Xacom Limited. Past clients of Xacom Project Controls have included National Grid, BAE Systems, Thales, Siemens, Lockheed Martin, Amec Foster Wheeler, Bombardier, UK MoD, Deltek, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and more recently Manchester Airport. He holds a Bachelor of Honours in Business and various Engineering and Project Management qualifications including a HNC and NVQ Level 3, and over 22 years of experience in the field. Mick is a Project Control nomad and has travelled the world while consulting.
8. Do You Trust Your IMS? (Earned Schedule vs. Traditional IECDs
in a forecasting accuracy showdown)
Yancy Qualls
Abstract:
An IMS can forecast almost any outcome…on paper. Independent Estimated Completion Date (IECD) formulas use past performance to objectively predict future completion dates. IECDs can then be compared to the forecast in the IMS to either support or challenge the accuracy of the IMS. But there are many IECD formulas. Which ones are the most reliable?
During this session, we will simulate 1000’s of project outcomes to see how IECD formulas based on Earned Schedule indices stack up against more traditional IECDs.
Brief Bio:
Yancy Qualls is an Engagement Director for Humphreys & Associates, with 30 years of Program Scheduling and Earned Value Management (EVM) experience on both government and commercial projects. He is co-lead of the team that owns the Planning & Scheduling Excellence Guide (PASEG) and serves on the Board of Directors of the National Defense Industrial Association's (NDIA) Integrated Program Management Division (IPMD). Mr. Qualls has been instrumental in the socialization of Earned Schedule principles by authoring content that was introduced into both the PASEG and Predictive Measures Guide.
Mr. Qualls earned a B.S. in Industrial Engineering from Texas A&M University and an MBA from Texas Christian University. In addition, he has held both the PSP and PMI-SP professional scheduling certifications.
E-mail: Yancy.qualls@humphreys-assoc.com
Sponsors
The organizers thank the following organizations for their sponsorship of this 20th Anniversary event:
Schedule Performance Analyzer©
Earned Schedule metrics from any scheduling/EVM tool.
Mosaic Project Services Pty Ltd
https://mosaicprojects.com.au/
Self-paced EVM and ES training and resources - see more.
Supporters
The organizers thank the following organizations for their support of this 20th Anniversary event:
Project Controls Expo
PC Expo a world-wide celebration of project controls
https://projectcontrolexpo.com/
CPM's mission is to share, promote, and advance the best of planning, control, and performance management for projects of all sizes and complexity.
London's premier Earned Value Analysis conference.
EVA28 Bridging the Knowing Doing Gap with the Controls
to Take Back Control
Armourers Hall Coleman Street Moorgate London
Visit the event website for more information.
Micro Planning International Pty Ltd
Conference and Event Management (Consec)